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Absolute diabetes risk
In addition to age and a family history of the disease, risk factors for type 2 diabetes include modifiable factors such as overweight and physical inactivity (Jaacks et al. 2016). The individual risk of developing type 2 diabetes in the next 5 years (absolute diabetes risk in percent) can be determined with the GDRS in persons without a previous diabetes diagnosis (Mühlenbruch et al. 2014). For this purpose, the GDRS summarises the information on various risk factors of type 2 diabetes on a weighted basis.
Key messages
- In the 18- to 79-year-old population, the individual risk of developing type 2 diabetes over the next 5 years is 1.1%.
- The absolute diabetes risk among men is almost twice that among women.
- The absolute diabetes risk among women and men in the lower education group is more than twice as high as the risk among those in the middle and higher education group.
Trend
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Cross-section
By state
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By gender
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By age
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By education group
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Results
In 2010, the 18- to 79-year-old population had an absolute diabetes risk of 1.1% (women: 0.8%; men: 1.5%). As expected, the absolute diabetes risk in both sexes increases with age and is several times higher among 65- to 79-year-olds (7.7%) than among 18- to 44-year-olds (0.3%). The absolute diabetes risk among women and men in the lower education group is more than twice as high as the risk among women and men in the middle and higher education group. Compared to 1998, the absolute diabetes risk decreased in 2010 among both sexes.
Conclusion
The decrease in the absolute diabetes risk between 1998 and 2010 is consistent with the decrease in the prevalence of prediabetes over the same period. The decrease in the absolute diabetes risk can mainly be attributed to a decrease in red meat consumption and waist circumference, which are risk factors considered by the GDRS (Paprott et al. 2017). Both red meat consumption and waist circumference can potentially be influenced by behaviour- and context-based preventive measures (Tönnies et al. 2021). The differences between women and men as well as education groups indicate which population groups should be particularly in the focus of suitable prevention measures.